If you're looking to photograph a polar bear hopping sea ice floes on your next summer cruise, you better hurry because in 30 years, the Arctic Sea could be free of ice.

Simulating the climate with computer models, researchers analyzed how global warming could affect sea ice in the future. The results, published in the Dec. 12 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, indicate that if greenhouse gases continue being released at their current rate, most of the Arctic basin will be ice free in September by 2040.

Additionally, winter ice, now about 12 feet thick, will become less than 3 feet thick.

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One previous study predicted that the region will have no summer ice by 2060, another study forecasts that the Arctic will be icy up until 2105.

The rapid meltdown, result of a warming globe, will itself accelerate the heating of the oceans, according to the latest study.

"As the ice retreats, the ocean transports more heat to the Arctic and the open water absorbs more sunlight, further accelerating the rate of warming and leading to the loss of more ice," said study lead author, Marika Holland, a scientists from NCAR. "This is a positive feedback loop with dramatic implications for the entire Arctic region."

Additionally, ocean circulations—affected by global warming—are driving warm ocean currents into the Arctic.

"We have already witnessed major losses in sea ice, but our research suggests that the decrease over the next few decades could be far more dramatic than anything that has happened so far," Holland said. "These changes are surprisingly rapid."

However, the future of the Arctic doesn't have to be so grim: running simulations with less greenhouse gases, the researchers found that the summer sea ice melted at a much slower rate.

"Our research indicates that society can still minimize the impacts on Arctic ice," Holland said.

somwhat related: What caused the ice age or last ice age?

I think the Ice Age is cyclic. The earth gets cold, everything freezes, then it starts to warm up because the greenhouse gases have settled, like the methane deposits in the arctic tundra, and things thaw out, after the thaw, they cool off again.

Just my theory.

I googled it an it appears to be a cycle that is caused by the wobble (sp?) in the earth's spin.

time to buy land on the northern Canadian coast eh?

i did a report on it in 5th grade.

all i remember is the 'cause' is very complex, consisting of numerous factors.

the 'wobble' could only cause it under certain circumstances or something.

just ask Al Gore

i saw Al Gore on ophra the other day. I was like wtf r u doing, then I sat and watched like i was mezmorized

There is a whole website that is devoted to debunking his "inconvenient Truth" Movie Line by line.

There is so many lies in that book/movie it is incredible.

My dad is reading a book written by a data analysis professor. Dad says that his views are sometimes with Gore, sometimes against, but the difference is that he has a STAGGERING amount of hard data to back up his claims.

This shit about the ice caps being gone in 35 years is total BS.

Gore or the Guy that wrote a book has Staggering amount of hard data?

The data guy that wrote the new book. I'll get the name and author from Dad sometime.