http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/06/29/us.iran/index.html

My thoughts on the whole thing is Seymour Hersh should be shot. He's anti-American and this is not the first time he has reported sensitive info that quite frankly none of us need to know about. He puts the lives of soldiers at risk so he can sell a few more magazines.

Piece of shit.

Just another asshole making stuff up to sell a story.

its actually productive. is it a lie or truth to rattle Iran?

IMO Iran cannot be rattled. Napoleon complex at its finest. Even with Israel clearly readying itself for a strike against nuclear facilities inside of Iran, they are defiant. I think that inside that empty space Ahmadinejad calls a skull an idea is brewing. He sees our military stretched thin. He sees a country with nuclear capabilities but one not willing to use them. He sees a way to make Iran a super power in his minds eye.

On August 15, 2004, an Iranian military chief said that Israel and the U.S. would not dare to attack his country, since it could strike back anywhere in Israel with its latest Shehab 3 missiles.

"The entire Zionist territory, including its nuclear facilities and atomic arsenal, are currently within range of Iran's advanced missiles," the ISNA students news agency quoted Yadollah Javani, the head of the Revolutionary Guards political bureau, as saying. "Therefore, neither the Zionist regime nor America will carry out its threats" against Iran, he said.

Israel, which is some 1,200 kilometers from Iranian rockets, and more than 10,000 kilometers closer to Iranian rockets than New York or Washington are, has been watching Tehran's march toward technology - and Bush's response - with understandable interest.

If Iran's shuck-and-jive dance with UN inspectors and negotiators can go on long enough, the entire dynamic could shift dramatically. A little more time, a lot more oil revenue, and the bomb goes Iranian.


This isnt Hussein we are dealing with, the weapons wont be leftovers from wars as far as decades ago.

well, cant see how we are stretched thin when the US (and the coalition of the willing)has two fronts already established. Three if you count Israels air force. Genius move IMO. That is if Iraq and Afghanistan was merely a facade. Makes since if 'Divide and Conquered' was utilized for the big fish (Iran) prior of 9/11 at the military academy.

there are operations inside many countries that we never know about, nor need to know about. as was posted earlier, this story could put our soldiers' lives in even more danger.

Oh yes, Iran has us right where they want us. We are so divided up it's like we almost surround them.

http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y175/amishboy/Middle-East-map.jpg

Prepared to pay 8 bucks a gallon when they cut off access to the Persian Gulf?

1--exactly how do you propose they cut off access to the persian gulf? Our CVBG's are designed with the exact scenario in mind that Iran would be forced to use--air strike using exocet or similar missiles. Have you seen the Iranian Navy?? Neither has Iran, I'm guessing....seriously, they have:

--a few midget subs, plus three old Soviet Kilo class subs

--some patrol boats and coastal patrol vessels

--4 destroyers(three of which arent even in service anymore)

--5 frigates, which is a ship thats smaller and less capable than a destroyer

--3 corvettes--basically just a smaller version of a frigate, but designed more for coastal patrol than for deep sea duty.

Of these, the newest ships that have any real effective punch are from the 1980s, while most of them are from the '60's. Old technology, combined with lack of use, poor training, and way inferior capability compared to our hardware, and it doesnt take an admiral to see how lopsided such a fight would be. As I said, the more effective and likely attempt would be what Iran has always threatened--air attack using anti-ship missiles. And in order for that to happen, their planes would have to get within a set distance from our fleet. Keep in mind also that their anti-ship capabilities pretty much suck all around, even using air-launched weapons. A good number of their a-g missiles use radio control, meaning the pilot still has to guide the weapon to the target after launching it. This is the same technology that Germany developed late in WWII....

2--I agree--the idiot that made these statements is potentially risking lives because he cant keep his friggin mouth shut. But the fact is this--no matter how much anyone wants to speculate about the CIA in Iran, the real covert powerhouse over there has always been Israel. Believe me, there isnt anything that we would know about Iran that they dont already know. And also, believe me, if they find something nuclear in Iran they WILL attack it. Just ask Saddam and company about Osiris....Israel wont wait for anyone's approval.

3--Ahmadinejad is a mad freak, marky, we agree on that. however, what youre failing to account for is this--if he really wants to attack Israel so badly, why hasnt he done it? Half the time his statements are nothing more than political bullshit--talking tough. I genuinely think he would attack if he thought he had any chance of success--but he hasnt. Even with their new theater S-S missile they still havent done anything. The most they can do is to support groups like Hezbollah and then deny it later. Thats because, while he's a mad idiot, he also likes living. He is at least smart enough to know that any real move down this path will see Iran getting slaughtered. In this day and age, many of Iran's former allies against Israel wouldnt be in the fight--Iraq is out, they dont have the capability to do anything. Syria's military is a mess, outdated and obsolete. Jordan signed a pact with Israel, so they wont fight. Egypt relies too much on the US for their military hardware now to go down this road. Same with Saudi Arabia--they have too much money tied up in America to go against us now. This isnt the 50s or 60s anymore, when big bad USSR's practically giving away state-of-the-art military hardware for nothing. It used to be that Israel had the smallest, most poorly equipped force in the region and now they are perhaps the best trained, best supplied, and most skilled fighting force in the middle east. Times have changed. So, while Iran still talks trash about Israel, the simple fact is that they cannot afford to do anything more than talk.

If we were to go to war tomorrow against Iran, we would have three fronts on them....Iraq to the west, Afghanistan to the east, and from the sea to the south. I dont think we could count on bases in SA because they are still loyal in many cases to the arab plight. The only reason we were able to get so much support in GW1 is because Saddam posed a legitimate threat to his neighbors, like SA. But I also dont think we would need those bases in SA. Iran's military is not in a position to challenge ours with conventional weapons and win, so their only option would be nukes--and since the fighting would be on their home soil, I dont think that nukes would be a big factor even if they had them lined up and ready to use against us.

1--exactly how do you propose they cut off access to the persian gulf?


Straight of Hormuz

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cf/Straße_von_Hormuz.jpg/650px-Straße_von_Hormuz.jpg



At its narrowest part it is 21 miles wide. Litter it with WWII era mines and oil out of the Persian Gulf is going to be slowed to a near stop. Seems easy enough to me. Is the US going to stand for it? No. Is Iran going attempt it? They have threatened to. It would most likely make the cost of a gallon of fuel double within the day of it happening.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-07/03/content_8478631.htm

U.S. naval official vows not to allow Iran to close Hormuz Strait

"ABU DHABI, July 2 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet Commander Kevin Cosgriff said Wednesday the United States will not allow Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran and the Arab Peninsula in the southeast of the Persian Gulf.

At a meeting of naval commanders of Gulf countries, Cosgriff said recent statements from Iranian officials that they would block trade passing through the Gulf if the country was attacked were an "international affront," according to local news website thenational.ae.

"It is saying to the world that nearly 40 percent of the oil and a significant amount of natural gas that flows through the Strait (of Hormuz) is now held hostage by a single country," the U.S. naval official said.

"I believe that Iran will not attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. We will not allow them to close the Straight of Hormuz. I cannot say it any more clearly than that," he added.

Commander of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari warned last month that Iran would impose controls on shipping in the Gulf oil transit route if it came under attack.

"Naturally when a country is attacked by an enemy, it will use all of its capabilities to confront the enemy," Jafari said, adding that Iran "will definitely impose control" on the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz."

a couple of problems with this idea--

while I agree that mines are probably their strongest suit, they are still not up to par with our capabilities. We have had far more experience in dealing with mines than they have had using them in combat situations. Plus, in doing so, they would only be hurting themselves financially, dont you think? Think quick--whats Iran's single largest export? Iran exports over 2.5 million barrels of oil PER DAY(as of 2004). Block off the strait as you suggested, and what happens to their oil exports? Think about this--they would be in a war with the US, they would NEED money. By mining their access to the gulf, arent they really just shooting themselves in the ass? Also, where is their large port? It's Port Imam Khomeni--which is to the west of the strait. This port handles the bulk of their oil exports, as well as tons of other imports and exports each year. EVerything from bulk goods to grains to oil are imported and exported through this port. Mining the strait may sound like a good idea, but you need to understand the way oil works. It hurts those who need to buy it, but the ones who sell it also get hurt if they stop doing so. Add that to all the rest of the mess that would occur and you will see that mining the strait would be idiotic at best. If they did, they would have exactly one port in operation to the south--Chabahar. This is termed as a "small seaport" and not nearly capable of handling everything that Iran needs to buy and sell to survive.

Then, consider the fact that our minesweeping capabilities, both by ship and using the MH-53 helo's, would get rid of the mines. THEN, consider the fact that mining that strait has international implications, such as blocking port access to other nations that are friendly to Iran--like the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar. Closing off their only sea access means effectively shutting these countries out from the rest of the world. Clearly there are plenty of reasons why Iran has only talked about mining the strait and not actually done it.

I've got to kinda argue with you on the whole mine deal skydivr... granted, I'm sitting in a coffee shop and I have not read your entire arguement. However:

OOB, you are neglecting to mention the mass amount of small go fasts they have. They got pretty damn good at their swarm techniques during the Iraq/Iran war. And they practice regularly. (Granted, we've seen their play book. And we can pretty much handle it)

Closing the straits (temporarily) would be a simple matter of taking several tankers into the middle of the travel lanes and sinking them. We'd have to clear them away.

Mines: they *could* litter the straits with mines, the stationary ones would be easy enough to locate, isolate, than dismantle (EOD ftw). Or simply defeat by sympathetic detonation. Our counter mine skillz are l337. The current in the SoH is strong, I've made that transit 6-8 times, the majority of the floating mines would be out of the straits in a matter of days. Cleaning them up afterwards would be a pain in the ass..

When it comes to conventional warfare they would be fucked. However they are sneeky little bastards and love to play the media game...


On a side note, in the Gulf: Philipino Monkey = late night entertainment :lmfao:

Iran is to dig 320,000 graves in border districts to allow for the burial of enemy soldiers in the event of any attack on its territory, a top commander said on Sunday.

"In implementation of the Geneva Conventions ... the necessary measures are being taken to provide for the burial of enemy soldiers," the Mehr news agency quoted General Mir-Faisal Bagherzadeh as saying.

"We have plans to dig 15,000 to 20,000 graves in each of the border provinces or a total of 320,000," the general said, some of them mass graves if necessary.

Bagherzadeh said Iran was keen to "reduce the suffering of the families of the fallen in any attack against our country ... and prevent any repetition of the long and bitter experience of the Vietnam War," when thousands of US troops went missing and rumors of their being held as prisoners continued to this day.

His comments came as the United States and Israel continue to refuse to rule out attacks on Iran over its nuclear program, which the West fears is cover for a drive to build an atomic weapon. Iran denies seeking to build warheads, insisting that it only wants to generate electricity, its right as signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

They also came as Israeli officials spoke of their determination to prevent Iran developing a nuclear capability at all costs.


A former head of Israel's Mossad foreign intelligence agency said in comments published on Sunday that the Jewish state had one year to destroy Iran's nuclear program or face the risk of coming under nuclear attack. Shabtai Shavit told London's Sunday Telegraph that the "worst-case scenario" was that Tehran would have a nuclear weapon within "somewhere around a year."

"The time that is left to be ready is getting shorter all the time," he said.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=93624

Didn't Germany recently declared protector of Israel?

I've got to kinda argue with you on the whole mine deal skydivr... granted, I'm sitting in a coffee shop and I have not read your entire arguement. However:

OOB, you are neglecting to mention the mass amount of small go fasts they have. They got pretty damn good at their swarm techniques during the Iraq/Iran war. And they practice regularly. (Granted, we've seen their play book. And we can pretty much handle it)

Closing the straits (temporarily) would be a simple matter of taking several tankers into the middle of the travel lanes and sinking them. We'd have to clear them away.

Mines: they *could* litter the straits with mines, the stationary ones would be easy enough to locate, isolate, than dismantle (EOD ftw). Or simply defeat by sympathetic detonation. Our counter mine skillz are l337. The current in the SoH is strong, I've made that transit 6-8 times, the majority of the floating mines would be out of the straits in a matter of days. Cleaning them up afterwards would be a pain in the ass..

When it comes to conventional warfare they would be fucked. However they are sneeky little bastards and love to play the media game...


On a side note, in the Gulf: Philipino Monkey = late night entertainment :lmfao:

I didnt neglect the amount of small boats they have, because the fact is that we do know their tactics and we will handle those. Now, it's gonna cost us, but not nearly as much as it will cost them in such a scenario. They didnt get "pretty damn good" at their swarm techniques during the Iran-Iraq war because they werent facing a big bluewater-capable navy in that war. Swarming a couple of gunboats is nothing at all like swarming a CVBG, you see my point?

Next, I would direct you to look at the Tanker War--Iran's only actual experience with swarming tactics and their fast boats. They attacked civilian tankers from Kuwait--big, fat, slow, unarmed targets that cant maneuver for shit. They didnt sink any, only damaging their targets and killing about 430 civilain sailors on more than 500 ships. This alone tells you that their swarming tactics arent at all as good as you think they are--if they were, they would have been able to sink those big, fat, slow, unarmed ships, no? But they couldnt...and because they tried, we launched Operation Earnest Will, flying our flag on foreign tankers so that any attack on them would constitute an attack on the US.

Imagine this---if their fast gunboats were this ineffective against unarmed targets, just how, exactly, do you think they would do against an American carrier battle group? Think about that one for a minute...

OK, now, lets talk about the mines--the last time they tried that tactic, it got them nowhere. There was only one ship that struck a mine--the USS Samuel B. Roberts, a frigate. This is basically our smallest seagoing warship, not counting submarines. And it struck a mine....the ship was hit in the engine room, but not lost. No sailors were killed, and ten were wounded. Out of all the ships, military and civilian, that travelled through there, only this one struck a mine from Iran. And again, they still couldnt sink one. Four days later, we launched Operation Praying Mantis--retalliation for this mine. We sank one of their frigates, damaged another, and sank several of their small patrol boats, all for the loss of one helo and its two crewmen.


I agree about them being screwed in conventional warfare, but they are also screwed with unconventional warfare. There isnt one category anywhere in warfare where they come out better than we do IMO. and man, they still do filipino monkey?? wow....I had forgotten all about that...

Europe has adopted a fairly neutral, pc position, but generally seems pro-Israel

this suits their future role as the political force that will bring lasting peace to the Middle East...let's face it, Muslim nations will never trust the U.S.

only on the surface....some of them did the same thing with Iraq in 2002/2003. They may appear to be neutral, but ask yourself who the prime targets are for European countries that export weapons? Take the Eurofighter Typhoon, the latest combat jet to come out of that region...they just sold 81 of these to Saudi Arabia, and they are no doubt looking for more customers. Neutral, my ass...